Publications and Analytics

Recent Publications

This paper presents a new costing model, which draws on publicly available data to estimate the costs of corruption and other efficiency losses caused by weak systems. The global estimates for the costs of corruption and efficiency losses are US$4.5 trillion at the general government level (about 5% of world GDP), or $1.7 trillion at the budgetary central government level. The model can provide breakdowns of these costs by country, level of government, sector and national system.
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Estimating the Costs of Corruption and Other Efficiency Losses from Weak Systems

This ppt provides a summary of AFI's rapid review of the Rwandan Social Protection and Community Development Sector. Eight sections are presented: 1: Social Protection & Community Development Aid, 2: Government Finance Data, 3: Absorptive Capacity, 4: SP/CD Non-financial Performance Indicators, 5: SDGs, 6: Development Finance, 7: (WEO) and 8: Systemic Risks and Efficiency Losses
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Rapid Public Finance Review of the Rwandan Social Protection & Community Development Sector

AFI was commissioned to undertake a review of the Australian Government's Pacific COVID-19 Response Package designed to support economic recovery from the pandemic in the Pacific and Timor-Leste. This review was undertaken to assess progress on the implementation of the package. The recommendations made in this review informed the design of future Australian support to the Pacific and Timor-Leste.
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Review of Australia’s COVID-19 Response Package for the Pacific and Timor-Leste

As part of work to estimate the costs of corruption and inefficiency from weak public finance systems some consistency issues were discovered in Government Finance Statistics (GFS) data held on IMF fiscal databases. This paper presents the findings of the consistency assessment. Consistency issues emerged in two different classification systems for expenditure: economic/object type and purpose (COFOG).
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GFS COFOG Expenditure Consistency Issues On GFS Databases

This annexe provides a range of analytics for briefing on financial and non-financial performance of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan.
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Republic of Afghanistan: Annex on Long Term Trends in Financial Inputs and Outcomes

AFI Submissions

In this IMF PFM Blog AFI presents a new methodology for estimating the costs of corruption and other efficiency losses. The conceptual framework of the AFI costing model is based on the idea that that weaknesses in public finance and oversight management systems open up holes that promote incompetence and mismanagement and can be actively exploited by those with corrupt intent. The model is based on a “follow-the-money corruption cycle”, which was developed as a practical way to demonstrate the underbelly of public finance systems when they are misused.
Go to IMF PFM Blog Post

Costs of Corruption and Other Efficiency Losses

AFI argues that a new revocable debt relief lending instrument may offer a way to help debt relief and concessional lending be more effective at securing governance reforms and socio-economic development goals that last the test of time
Go to IMF PFM Blog Post

Revocable Debt Relief Instruments

AFI presents a new methodology and data model that measures absorptive capacity of aid recipient countries at the sector level using publicly available data. The model is published and made freely available.
Go to IMF PFM Blog Post

Sector Absorptive Capacity Analytics

Non-AFI Submissions 2020

This post on the IMF PFM Blog by Andrew Laing presents a “follow-the-money corruption cycle” to demonstrate how corruption works at each stage of the public finance management system. The paper argues that the primary public accountability mechanism that operates in the space between elections is the budget cycle.
Go to IMF PFM Blog Post

How Corruption Works in the Public Sector—One Easy Lesson

In this Post by Andrew Laing, a dozen examples of red flags for identifying “fake” budget reforms are presented. It focused on two closely related areas of budgeting that are commonly found in PFM reform programs: i) Policy-based budgeting; and ii) Performance-based budgeting
Go to IMF PFM Blog Post

Budget Reform: How to spot the fakes?

Historical Non-AFI Papers 2015-21

Learn more about the practice of "Corrupt Budgeting". This is the power point that was delivered to U.S. Treasury, Office of Technical Assistance, Budget and Financial Accountability Team Meeting
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Presentation to US Treasury on
Corrupt Budgeting and Fake Reform (ppt)

Andrew Laing, AFI's Director, developed the fiscal intelligence tools for this PER. Take a look at the publication. Fiscal data from 50,000 villages was analysed with various metrics including automatic calculation of PEFA budget reliability scores, accounting coherence checks, unit costs, per capita indicators, as well production of consolidated and individual village financial statements for every village.
Go to World Bank Publication

AFI Fiscal Intelligence Methods Used for this World Bank Publication:
Village Public Expenditure Management in Indonesia: Towards Better Budgeting and Spending

The Republic of Afghanistan's Ministry of Finance Papers (published)

See what we said about fiduciary and development risks in April 2015 and the need to build a consensus around the problems and the solutions in a high risk environment.
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A Fiduciary and Development Risk and Cost-Effectiveness Assessment

April 8, 2015
See what we said about what was needed to move away from a culture of corruption to a on based on performance. The approach was focused on building teams. The paper is establishes the Ministry of Finance's first Team-Based Rolling 5 Year Plan for Implementation of the 2nd PFM Roadmap.
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Achieving a Performance Culture in a Conflict Affected State

September 19, 2015
See what we said about fiduciary and development risks and progress on reform priorities and underlying issues while trying to incentivise reform and cooperation in a difficult operating environment.
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2016 Mid-Year Performance Tracking Report

September, 2016
This was the first Annual Assessment of performance for implementation of the 5-year rolling Fiscal Performance Improvement Plan (FPIP)
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2016 Annual Performance Assessment Report Volume I

April, 2017
This was the Volume 2 of the Annual Assessment of performance for implementation of the 5-year rolling Fiscal Performance Improvement Plan (FPIP)
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2016 Annual Performance Assessment Report Volume II

This is is Budget Book 1 for 2018 Fiscal Year. It represents the Outcomes of Phase 1 Budget Reforms of "Disclose, Constrain and Fix" sequencing approach
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1397 (2018) Budget Book No. 1

April 8, 2015
This is is Budget Book 2 for 2018 Fiscal Year. It discloses multi-dimensional financial statements for each ministry and province for consolidated, operating and development budgets.
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1397 (2018) Budget Book No. 2 (Ministry and Provincial Financial Statements)

April 8, 2015
This is is Budget Book 3 for 2018 Fiscal Year. It discloses historical (from 2010) financial statements for each ministry - for consolidated, operating and development budgets. Budget 2 Actuals from 1393 (2014)
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1397 (2018) Budget Book No. 3 (Historical Tables)

September 19, 2015