Recent Publications
This paper is an example of the power of AFI's fiscal space model. It explores how the US budget process can combat corruption, using fiscal intelligence and a Fiscal Space framework to quantify losses. The study finds the US loses approximately $1.4 trillion annually to corruption and inefficiency, with notable losses in Social Protection and Health sectors. Four scenarios are modelled, showing efficiency gains as the primary, low-risk source of fiscal space, potentially rising to $4.7 trillion in broader scenarios. The analysis highlights increasing institutionalized corruption and weakened budgeting since 2000, and recommends further research into budget metrics and reform strategies for improved policy responses.
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Curbing US Corruption Through the Budget Process
2025 Annual ECPR Conference Paper
August 25 2025
Why is it difficult for policy makers to weed out corruption through the budget process? The working answer is that corruption is a sensitive topic in government, and that there are asymmetric information problems in the resource allocation process. The paper presents evidence on ways to solve these problems and help make the annual budget process an efficient and effective mechanism to tackle the corruption problem.
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Curbing Corruption Through the Budget Process - 2024 Annual ECPR Conference Paper
August 13 2024
This paper presents a new costing model, which draws on publicly available data to estimate the costs of corruption and other efficiency losses caused by weak systems. The global estimates for the costs of corruption and efficiency losses are US$4.5 trillion at the general government level (about 5% of world GDP), or $1.7 trillion at the budgetary central government level. The model can provide breakdowns of these costs by country, level of government, sector and national system.
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Estimating the Costs of Corruption and Other Efficiency Losses from Weak Systems
March 31 2023 (updated May 9 2023)
This ppt provides a summary of AFI's rapid review of the Rwandan Social Protection and Community Development Sector. Eight sections are presented: 1: Social Protection & Community Development Aid, 2: Government Finance Data, 3: Absorptive Capacity, 4: SP/CD Non-financial Performance Indicators, 5: SDGs, 6: Development Finance, 7: (WEO) and
8: Systemic Risks and Efficiency Losses
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Rapid Public Finance Review of the Rwandan Social Protection & Community Development Sector
February 20 2023
AFI was commissioned to undertake a review of the Australian Government's Pacific COVID-19 Response Package designed to support economic recovery from the pandemic in the Pacific and Timor-Leste. This review was undertaken to assess progress on the implementation of the package. The recommendations made in this review informed the design of future Australian support to the Pacific and Timor-Leste.
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Review of Australia’s COVID-19 Response Package for the Pacific and Timor-Leste
February 10 2023
As part of work to estimate the costs of corruption and inefficiency from weak public finance systems some consistency issues were discovered in Government Finance Statistics (GFS) data held on IMF fiscal databases. This paper presents the findings of the consistency assessment. Consistency issues emerged in two different classification systems for expenditure: economic/object type and purpose (COFOG).
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GFS COFOG Expenditure Consistency Issues On GFS Databases
Jan 23 2023
This annexe provides a range of analytics for briefing on financial and non-financial performance of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan.
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Republic of Afghanistan: Annex on Long Term Trends in Financial Inputs and Outcomes
Jan 12 2023
AFI Submissions
In this IMF PFM Blog AFI presents a new methodology for estimating the costs of corruption and other efficiency losses. The conceptual framework of the AFI costing model is based on the idea that that weaknesses in public finance and oversight management systems open up holes that promote incompetence and mismanagement and can be actively exploited by those with corrupt intent. The model is based on a “follow-the-money corruption cycle”, which was developed as a practical way to demonstrate the underbelly of public finance systems when they are misused.
Go to IMF PFM Blog Post
Costs of Corruption and Other Efficiency Losses
Apr 3, 2023
AFI argues that a new revocable debt relief lending instrument may offer a way to help debt relief and concessional lending be more effective at securing governance reforms and socio-economic development goals that last the test of time
Go to IMF PFM Blog Post
Revocable Debt Relief Instruments
October 3, 2022
AFI presents a new methodology and data model that measures absorptive capacity of aid recipient countries at the sector level using publicly available data. The model is published and made freely available.
Go to IMF PFM Blog Post
Sector Absorptive Capacity Analytics
August 8, 2022
Non-AFI Submissions 2020
This post on the IMF PFM Blog by Andrew Laing presents a “follow-the-money corruption cycle” to demonstrate how corruption works at each stage of the public finance management system. The paper argues that the primary public accountability mechanism that operates in the space between elections is the budget cycle.
Go to IMF PFM Blog Post
How Corruption Works in the Public Sector—One Easy Lesson
March 2, 2020
In this Post by Andrew Laing, a dozen examples of red flags for identifying “fake” budget reforms are presented. It focused on two closely related areas of budgeting that are commonly found in PFM reform programs: i) Policy-based budgeting; and ii) Performance-based budgeting
Go to IMF PFM Blog Post
Policy-Based Budgeting: How to spot the fakes?
January 13, 2020
This paper received a mention in the IMF PFM Blog Top 10 IMF PFM Blog Posts of 2020. It was the highest placed non-COVID related piece for the year.
Historical Non-AFI Papers 2015-21
Learn more about the practice of "Corrupt Budgeting". This is the power point that was delivered to U.S. Treasury, Office of Technical Assistance, Budget and Financial Accountability Team Meeting
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Presentation to US Treasury on
Corrupt Budgeting and Fake Reform (ppt)
February 25, 2020
Andrew Laing, AFI's Director, developed the fiscal intelligence tools for this PER. Take a look at the publication. Fiscal data from 50,000 villages was analysed with various metrics including automatic calculation of PEFA budget reliability scores, accounting coherence checks, unit costs, per capita indicators, as well production of consolidated and individual village financial statements for every village.
Go to World Bank Publication
August 12, 2021
AFI Fiscal Intelligence Methods Used for this World Bank Publication:
Village Public Expenditure Management in Indonesia: Towards Better Budgeting and Spending
September 26, 2016
September 26, 2016
January 30, 2017
January 30, 2017
April 25, 2017
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April 29, 2017
March 2, 2018
September 20, 2019
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The Republic of Afghanistan's Ministry of Finance Papers (published)
See what we said about fiduciary and development risks in April 2015 and the need to build a consensus around the problems and the solutions in a high risk environment.
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A Fiduciary and Development Risk and Cost-Effectiveness Assessment
April 8, 2015
See what we said about what was needed to move away from a culture of corruption to a on based on performance. The approach was focused on building teams. The paper is establishes the Ministry of Finance's first Team-Based Rolling 5 Year Plan for Implementation of the 2nd PFM Roadmap.
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Achieving a Performance Culture in a Conflict Affected State
September 19, 2015
See what we said about fiduciary and development risks and progress on reform priorities and underlying issues while trying to incentivise reform and cooperation in a difficult operating environment.
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2016 Mid-Year Performance Tracking Report
September, 2016
This was the first Annual Assessment of performance for implementation of the 5-year rolling Fiscal Performance Improvement Plan (FPIP)
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2016 Annual Performance Assessment Report Volume I
April, 2017
This was the Volume 2 of the Annual Assessment of performance for implementation of the 5-year rolling Fiscal Performance Improvement Plan (FPIP)
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2016 Annual Performance Assessment Report Volume II
April, 2017
This is is Budget Book 1 for 2018 Fiscal Year. It represents the Outcomes of Phase 1 Budget Reforms of "Disclose, Constrain and Fix" sequencing approach
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1397 (2018) Budget Book No. 1
April 8, 2015
This is is Budget Book 2 for 2018 Fiscal Year. It discloses multi-dimensional financial statements for each ministry and province for consolidated, operating and development budgets.
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1397 (2018) Budget Book No. 2 (Ministry and Provincial Financial Statements)
April 8, 2015
This is is Budget Book 3 for 2018 Fiscal Year. It discloses historical (from 2010) financial statements for each ministry - for consolidated, operating and development budgets. Budget 2 Actuals from 1393 (2014)
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